Quinn gains on Brady in new Tribune poll

September 30, 2010 ISSUES 12 Comments mcpundit

The race for Governor tightens with one month to go.

Just released Chicago Tribune poll has Quinn over Brady for the first time (by one point):

Governor leads Republican 39% to 38% compared with Brady’s 4-percentage point lead of a month ago

Republican Bill Brady’s early advantage in the Illinois governor race has evaporated as voters have gotten to know him a bit better and grown to like Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn a bit more, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll found.

Quinn has hammered his lesser-known downstate opponent with TV attack ads asking “Who is this guy?” and the poll indicates the strategy is paying dividends. Quinn scored 39 percent to 38 percent for Brady. The poll’s 4-percentage-point margin of error means the race is neck and neck with little more than a month left before the Nov. 2 election.

A pre- Labor Day Tribune survey had Brady leading Quinn 37 percent to 32 percent. But in the last four weeks, Quinn’s abysmal job approval rating improved a little, and voters view him slightly more favorably than a month ago. And the governor is attracting more support from traditionally key sources of Democratic vote, particularly in Chicago and among African-American voters.

GOP Unknown Within Striking Distance of Barney Frank

September 30, 2010 ISSUES No Comments mcpundit

This from the Washington Examiner. Is the GOP just whistling Dixie, or is this challenge for real?

READ ARTICLE BELOW

Sean Bielat, the Republican candidate for Congress in Massachusetts’ 4th District, has had just one conversation with his Democratic opponent, Rep. Barney Frank.

It was in August, at a parade in New Bedford. “I went up to introduce myself and said, ‘Nice to meet you,’” Bielat recalls. “He said, ‘I wish I could say the same, but you’ve made this personal. You’ve been attacking me.’ Then he turned and walked away.”

Bielat remembers thinking that was a little odd, since at that very moment Frank’s Web site featured plenty of attacks on Bielat. But the brief encounter set the tone for what has become an increasingly contentious campaign. The nervousness plaguing Democrats nationwide has touched even Frank, a 14-term incumbent who hasn’t faced a serious challenger in years.

Bielat is 35 years old, a Marine who spent four years on active duty and is now a major in the Reserve. He’s a graduate of Georgetown University with a master’s from Harvard and an MBA from Wharton. He’s devoted a good portion of his professional life to manufacturing the high-tech robots that defuse improvised explosive devices in Iraq and Afghanistan. In other words, he’s a serious man.

In the spring and summer of 2009, Bielat watched in dismay as Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress pursued one big-government initiative after another. He began to think about running but didn’t make a final decision until Jan. 19, when a certain Republican won election to the Senate from Massachusetts — and did it by winning in Frank’s district. “When Scott Brown won the 4th Congressional District, it became clear that not only could a Republican win here,” says Bielat, “but there was a case to be made nationally to donors and supporters that this is winnable.”

National support is key, Bielat believes, given that his opponent is chairman of one of the most powerful committees on Capitol Hill and can raise virtually all the money he wants. But Frank is also one of those liberal Democrats who conservative Republicans love to hate. If GOP donors across the country think there’s a chance to beat him, they’ll start giving. So far, support has been steady but not overwhelming. Bielat has raised about $600,000; Frank has pulled in many times that.

Bielat is a relative newcomer to the 4th District. He grew up around Rochester, N.Y., and in addition to his military service has worked or gone to school in Chicago, Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia before settling in the district in 2007. Given that, it’s not a surprise that a poll taken by his campaign in mid-September found that 43 percent of voters have never heard of Bielat. Everyone — literally everyone — knows Frank.

But Bielat is still heartened by the poll’s main finding, which shows him trailing Frank by just 10 points. Frank’s supporters say the lead is bigger, but Bielat believes he’s within striking distance.

Ask Bielat to name the three worst things Frank has done in office and you get an idea of what his focus would be, if elected. “You’ve got to start with Freddie and Fannie and his unending push to expand homeownership,” Bielat says. “He definitely played an enormous role in getting us where we are today in terms of the real estate bubble and the ensuing financial collapse.”

Number two? “Financial reform, because it doesn’t address Fannie and Freddie and vastly expands oversight of the financial services sector.”

Three? “His view on what government should and should not do.” Simply put, Frank wants an always-expanding federal government, and Bielat doesn’t.

Bielat is particularly concerned about runaway entitlement spending, which is something few Republicans other than Rep. Paul Ryan are willing to take on. (Bielat is a big Ryan fan.) When asked about his party’s new Pledge to America, Bielat sounds less than dazzled. “I think it’s fine, but I’m not running on it,” he says. “I wish it had addressed entitlement reform.”

You have to classify a Bielat victory as unlikely. Frank usually wins re-election with between 65 percent and 75 percent of the vote — and that’s when Republicans even bother to field a candidate against him. That’s a strong record.

Still, this is no usual year. The fact that Bill Clinton — the Democratic Party’s biggest gun — recently came by to campaign for Frank suggests party leaders don’t believe Frank is a shoo-in. Republicans across the country should take notice, Bielat says: “This is one worth watching.”

Byron York, The Examiner’s chief political correspondent, can be contacted at byork@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears on Tuesday and Friday, and his stories and blogposts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.

McPundit Mid-Week Politics-NY Gov. Christie Coming To Peoria For Brady

September 29, 2010 ISSUES 2 Comments mcpundit

McLean County’s Associate Judge Paul Lawrence appointed to retiring Judge Michael Prall’s seat in the 11th Judicial Circuit (Link here)
New CNN Poll has Illinois Governor race a dead-heat (Link here for more info)
CNN Poll has Giannoulias ahead of Kirk by 1 point in US Senate race. When you average the last 4 polls, Brady leads by 6.8 points (link here)
PPI Poll has Kirk ahead by 4 (Link here)
So how did the first debate go between Brady/Quinn? Quinn says, “Brady doesn’t have a heart.” (Link here)
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at Peoria Republican Rally for Bill Brady

Tuesday, October 5, 2010 Rally 5:30 – 7:00 p.m. Doors open at 5:15 p.m.2211 W. Pioneer Park, Peoria $25 per person The rally will also highlight our local GOP candidates

Please make checks payable to:Peoria County Republican Central Committee (PCRCC)

8835 N. Knoxville Ave. Peoria, IL 61615

RSVP or Questions? Becky Weber at 309-369-1133 or mweber@mtco.com

Finish Line Ford Showroom (Old Menard’s Building)

NATIONAL MID-WEEK HEADLINES

Obama Needs a Crash Course in Pragmatism – Don Campbell, USA Today
How Big Has the Government Grown? – Pete Du Pont, Wall Street Journal
GOP’s Deficit-Cut Pledge Lacks Specifics – David Leonhardt, New York Times
America’s Poverty Crisis – Katrina vanden Heuvel, Washington Post
Raise Taxes to Pay for Union Benefits? – Steven Malanga, RealClearMarkets
Obama Should Look Beyond His Inner Circle – Douglas Schoen, Daily Beast
Valerie Jarrett’s Unparalleled Influence – Dana Milbank, Washington Post
GM Shouldn’t Be Making Campaign Contributions – Jennifer Marsico, NRO
Is Ted Strickland Recovering? – Nick Baumann, Mother Jones
When Rules for the Common Good Cross the Line – Kathleen Parker, WP
SOURCE

Illinois Race For Governor Tightens-Independent Candidate In Play As Spoiler?

September 29, 2010 ISSUES No Comments mcpundit

Will this be the Illinois Governor's finish line with Scott Lee Cohen holding the axe?

ILLINOIS GOVERNOR’S RACE

As we’ve said before; lest the GOP get too giddy. . . the CNN poll just released certainly doesn’t jive with the last two separate polling firms showing GOP candidate for Governor Bill Brady with a double-digit lead. CNN has Brady ahead by just 2 points, within the margin of error. Brady is at 40%; Quinn at 38% and interestingly, Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 14%. Green Party Rich Whitney garners 4%.

As the CNN poll points out, 1 in 5 voters opt for someone other than Brady or Quinn.

ILLINOIS – U.S. SENATE RACE

The CNN poll is the first major one who has Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in the lead over Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, for the U.S. Senate race; though just by one point. Still, that’s better news than Giannoulias has seen of late.

CNN has Giannoulias with 43% and Kirk at 42%. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones has 8% with 4% undecided. This poll was taken before the recent Income Tax missteps by Giannoulias, so we’ll see what the next rounds of polling data tell us.

Illinois U.S. Senate Race-Uh Oh-Democrat Giannoulias and Income Taxes: Two Versions of the Truth

September 29, 2010 ISSUES 1 Comment mcpundit

Making Chicago Tribune headlines in a heated race for U.S. Senate isn’t an unusual thing with 4 weeks to go to Election Day; however, for Democrat candidate Alexi Giannoulias, these weren’t good headlines today.

The entire political nation is now focused on Illinois’ Governor’s race, the race for Obama’s former U.S. Senate seat, and just the important fact that Illinois may turn from blue to red which in itself will be history-making. Today’s headlines tells everyone that Democrat Senate candidate Giannoulias looks to have some income tax ’splainin’ to do.

While Republican Brady holds a double-digit lead for Governor in several recent polls, this Senate race is a statistical tie as voters are troubled by both men’s handling of their resumes and their campaigns; so these negative headlines today for Giannoulias may affect the next round of polling on this race.

From the Chicago Tribune:

U.S. Senate hopeful tells voters he was gone from the ailing institution by late 2005 — but he told the IRS something else

U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias tells voters he was gone from his troubled family bank by late 2005, but that’s not what he told the Internal Revenue Service.

Giannoulias was able to take a $2.7 million tax deduction last year because he reported working hundreds of hours at Broadway Bank in 2006.

Giannoulias says there’s no contradiction, and in fact there is no suggestion the Democratic state treasurer took a tax break he didn’t deserve. Rather, the issue highlights the fine line Giannoulias walks on the campaign trail in explaining exactly what he did at Broadway and when he did it.

The bank was at the top of his résumé when he was a 30-year-old first-time statewide candidate in 2006 with few professional highlights. But in his tight Senate race against Republican Mark Kirk, his tenure as a senior loan officer at Broadway is a bull’s-eye for critics who hit him for the bank’s loans to mob figures as well as troubled lending that contributed to Broadway’s collapse earlier this year.

Edgar Finally Endorses Brady

September 28, 2010 ISSUES 1 Comment mcpundit

POLL UPDATE: Fox Poll: Illinois Governor’s race, Brady up by 10 - U.S. Senate race, Kirk up by 2

Be still our beating hearts.

Before the GOP had a candidate to run against Rod Blagojevich his second time around, with allegations swirling even then around him; the GOP waited “breathlessly” for Edgar to decide whether he deemed Illinois worthy of his time for a run to save this State. We waited, and waited, and waited. . . . reluctant would-be Gubernatorial candidate Judy Baar Topinka waited, and waited, and waited. Say what you will, Topinka, now a candidate for Comptroller; was, and is, loyal to this State of Illinois. . . . and in the eleventh hour, a tearful Edgar declined to run, leaving Topinka to scramble for fundraising dollars and any enthusiasm for her race. She was finished before she even began.

Thank you, Jim Edgar.

Now, after criticizing Brady for months, Edgar has endorsed him just in time for his photo op before heading back to Colorado. I don’t know if he cried this time.

Make no mistake, there is still much gnashing of teeth among the Edgar and Kirk Dillard “people”. State Senator Kirk Dillard was Edgar’s choice for Governor. They were shocked, and still are, that Brady won the Primary by 193 votes no less. Their “people”, it is rumored, are positioning themselves to be players in the Brady regime. You can find them on the campaign trail if you look closely.

If Bill Brady becomes Governor, the fun really begins as we watch who trys to govern Illinois and who trys to govern Bill Brady.

The Tea Party, 912 Project and Libertarians Join the 2011 Bloomington City Council Races

September 28, 2010 ISSUES 10 Comments mcpundit

With paint not even dry on the statewide, Congressional and District election cycle, the 2011 municipal races are already hitting the headlines.

In Chicago today, there are no front-page articles about the races for Governor or U.S. Senate, you know, the Senate seat once held by the President of the United States? Instead, it’s all about the presumption that Obama’s Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, is leaving the White House and returning to Chicago to run for Mayor.

In central Illinois, it looks like there will be several contested City Council races in Bloomington. Incumbents Karen Schmidt, John Hanson and David Sage may have opponents as petitions have been taken out in each of these Wards.

It’s rumored but not confirmed that John Hanson won’t seek re-election. Two people have taken out petitions to run in Ward 8; (east-side of Bloomington). Eric Decossas is one. Eric ran unsuccessfully for Mayor against Steve Stockton and Tari Renner in 2009; coming in third. Mary Kramp has also taken out petitions. Kramp was one of the leading advocates who helped organize efforts against building the U.S Coliseum (then called the Arena). The public voted by Referendum against the Arena, but the City Council voted to approve the project despite public opposition against it. Most of those City Councilmen were defeated in the following election cycle.

In Ward 2 (the Fox Creek, Pepper Ridge area), David Sage will be challenged by Karen Green. Green is the wife of Libertarian candidate for Illinois Governor, Lex Green. In 2007, Sage defeated long-time City Council member Mike Matejka . Matejka was a vocal proponent in the Arena/Coliseum project push. He and other pro-Arena Council members were swept out of office that year.

In Ward 6, incumbent Karen Schmidt is being challenged by Jeff Ready.

These are non-partisan races in theory; but in actuality, it’s all about politics. Decossas and Kramp are Republicans. Sage is a Republican, Green is a Libertarian, but is also a Republican precinct committeewoman. Schmidt is a Democrat and Ready is Treasurer of the local Libertarian Party.

Members of the Tea Party, the 912 Project, as well as the Libertarian Party are involved in these City Council races, which will make them more “watched” than usual.

Ready, Decossas and Green are active in the Tea Party and 912 groups, with Green presumably voting Libertarian for at least one candidate this year, her husband Lex.

Rahm Emanuel Likely to Leave White House This Week

September 27, 2010 ISSUES 4 Comments mcpundit

From ABC News:

The former Chicagoan has never been coy about his desire to head the proverbial City With Shoulders.

“One day I would like to run for mayor of the city of Chicago. … That’s always been an aspiration of mine, even when I was in the House of Representatives,” Emanuel said in April to Bloomberg’s Charlie Rose. With Daley’s announced exit, ambitious Chicago Democrats quickly began angling to replace him, creating pressure for Emanuel to make a decision on his White House position soon, even coming from the president himself.

This Week’s News At a Glance

September 27, 2010 ISSUES 2 Comments mcpundit

NATIONAL POLITICS

UPDATE:

Democrats fear Midwestern meltdown

Is this true, or is the GOP getting too giddy? The possible Democrat meltdown sentiment is also showing up in the Mainstream Media; and we’ll know by 11/2 if the meltdown fears were for real:

That disillusionment is front and center in Illinois, the truest blue state of the crop. Its budget hole rivals California’s, and instead of making long-term structural revamps, the state has this year borrowed heavily and issued bonds.

At the same time, voters have watched the corruption trial of Democratic ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, and the hapless campaign of current Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, who’s got an anemic 23 percent approval rating in PPP’s recent survey and trails GOP nominee Bill Brady by double digits.

In the state’s other high-profile statewide race, despite help from the White House, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is struggling in what should have been a far easier race to hold the president’s former Senate seat against GOP Rep. Mark Kirk—especially after revelations that the Republican exaggerated his military record.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42713_Page2.html#ixzz10ktCDmno

And these Monday morning headlines:

Obama Looks to Recapture ‘08 Enthusiasm – Rucker & Kornblut, Wash Post
The Big Government Crowd – Steven Malanga, New York Post
Obama is a President, Not a Superhero – Stanley Crouch, NY Daily News
Weariness With Obama Spreads Far & Wide – Hugh Hewitt, DC Examiner
The Northeast Is the Democrats’ Firewall – E.J. Dionne, Washington Post
Dems Face Skeptics in Rural Midwest – Douglas Belkin, Wall Street Journal
Manchin Calls for Partial Repeal of Health Law – McPike & Conroy, RCP
Is the American Dream Slipping Away? – Gregory Rodriguez, LA Times
The Great U-Turn – James Bennett, National Review
What’s Eating David Axelrod? – Noam Scheiber, The New Republic
GOP’s Pledge to Put Government on a Diet – Michael Barone, DC Examiner
Obama Thwarted on Afghan War Choice – Bob Woodward, Washington Post
Obama’s Wars: Revolt of the Generals – Jed Babbin, The American Spectator
A Trade War With China? – Robert Samuelson, Newsweek
Structural Unemployment Is an Excuse – Paul Krugman, New York Times
Fairness at an Unfair Cost – Ralph Reiland, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
The Revolution Will Not Be Tweeted – Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Latest 2010 Polls: CT Sen: Blumenthal (D) +5 | PA Sen: Toomey (R) +7
Election 2010: Battle in West Virginia | This Weekend’s Polls
SOURCE

A SHORT WEEK WITH BIG DECISIONS, OR NOT?

It’s a short week for our Washington D.C. politicians.

The Senate starts work today but the House doesn’t start work until Wednesday, and both end their week on Thursday as they shut down ’til after Election Day, November 2. With September 30 the end of the fiscal year, the most pressing work to be done is agreeing to fund the government past September 30. Congress has already delayed their vote to extend the tax cuts, until after 11/2.

Monday, Sept. 27
Obama will be interviewed live from the White House on NBC’s “Today Show.” He’ll also sign the small-business bill. Later in the day he heads to Albuquerque, N.M.

The White House-created commission probing the BP oil spill begins a two-day hearing. Among those scheduled to testify: Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, National Incident Commander Thad Allen, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.). It will be webcast at oilspillcommission.gov.

Tuesday, Sept. 28
Biden will deliver remarks at a rally at Pennsylvania State University. Then he heads to New York City for an event for Illinois Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias.

Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf testifies at 10 a.m. before the Senate Budget Committee on the outlook for the economy. 608 Dirksen.

The Senate Armed Services Committee meets at 10 a.m. for a hearing on the Pentagon’s cost-cutting efforts, with testimony by William J. Lynn III, deputy Defense secretary. G-50 Dirksen.

Wednesday, Sept. 29

Alaska Senate nominee Joe Miller will be in Washington through Friday for fundraisers and meetings.

The House Armed Services Committee holds a 10 a.m. hearing on the Pentagon’s cost-cutting efforts. 2118 Rayburn.

Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, discusses Wall Street reform at an event sponsored by the Economic Club of Washington. Reception begins at 6 p.m.; dinner is at 7 p.m. Ritz-Carlton Hotel, 1150 22nd St. NW.

Thursday, Sept. 30

It’s the final day for candidates to raise money for third-quarter Federal Election Commission reports, which are due Oct. 15.

Friday, Oct. 1

The new fiscal year begins.

SOURCE: http://thehill.com/homenews/news/120993-the-week-ahead-pre-campaign-crunch

Political Week in Review

September 26, 2010 ISSUES No Comments mcpundit

COMMENTARY:

You know what we say here, “As Illinois goes, so goes the nation”. All eyes are on our race for Governor, U.S. Senate, and now the most recent chatter is that the GOP may take the Illinois House back. Patting my blogsite www.McLeanCountyPundit.com on the back, I was proud to have been invited as one of the top 10 blogs in Illinois to attend RightNation in Hoffman Estates last week, whose speakers included Bill Brady, controversial Andrew Breitbart, WSJ’s John Fund and Glenn Beck. Link here for coverage of this event.

And if you missed it, the event for Rep. Keith Sommer at the home of Bud Hall was a real treat with beautiful weather, and a beautiful view of the pastures and horses. The event was hosted by Bud Hall and retired Senators John Maitland and Harber Hall, and Joanne Maitland. The event also celebrated Senator Hall’s 90th birthday. Link here for photos of the event. You’ll want to see the photos if nothing else to see Bud’s dog, Chanel, better known as “Miss Yappy”.

McLean County Board member arrested

The local McLean County headline news this past week was the arrest (again) of McLean County Board member, Bob Nuckolls. More details of this arrest can be linked to here. McLean County GOP Chairman John Parrott issued a Press Release asking for the resignation of Nuckolls:

“Bob Knuckolls has lost the support of the citizens of McLean County over the past years with his continual encounters with the local Police. This type of conduct is unbecoming of an elected official. His actions are a disgrace to the citizens of McLean County, to his Party, and I am asking for his resignation.” Parrott said.

The last time Nuckolls was involved in a similar scrape with the law, he refused strong suggestions to resign. This time however, he faces a Class 4 felony charge of unlawful restraint which carries a 1-3 year prison sentence. One cannot be forced off the Board unless convicted of a felony.

Three Debates Scheduled for Illinois Governor’s Race-Brady has 13-point lead in latest poll

As “Quinn stuggles to find clear message”, it appears that Democrats only hope to retain the Governor’s seat may be to pray for major gaffes by Bill Brady in upcoming debates. In the latest Rasmussen Poll out last week, Brady had a 13-point lead. Three debates have been scheduled; September 29th, October 14th and October 20th. At the RightNation event last week in Hoffman Estates, Wall Street Journal’s John Fund predicted a Brady win in Illinois with this line during my interview with Mr. Fund: Fund said; “Who would vote for Quinn?” Good question.

U.S. Senate Race-Kirk maintains slight lead

It’s still a nailbiter. In the last polling data Republican Mark Kirk held a slight 3-point lead, making this race for U.S. Senate a statistical tie. Kirk was in McLean County recently, where retired and respected Congressman Tom Ewing gave his voting record the benefit of the doubt saying, “he’s changed his mind on several votes, and I respect that.”

11th Congressional Race-Adam Kinzinger vs. Halvorson-upcoming debate

See the events list below for the October 12th ISU debate details, but this race has become a real doozy as Halvorson shows signs of not-so-quiet desperation. She’s reading the poll numbers and isn’t offering any of her own. Three recent analysts, The Rothenberg Report, FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics, all say this race now favors the Republican, Adam Kinzinger.

Illinois State Treasurer Race

Normally a quieter race, this one is seeing some action as Republican Dan Rutherford and his Democrat opponent Robin Kelly, exchange some strong opinions on this office. Link here to Senator Rutherford’s website, where he also issues a Press Release announcing Mitt Romney’s visit to Illinois to help the campaigns of Brady and Kirk; and Romney’s endorsements of other Illinois candidates.

Rutherford has an effective new ad; link here to view: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1-nS9QcZ28 __________________________________________________________________________________________________

LOCAL GOP EVENTS:

Local McLean County Board campaign website: www.susanschafercountyboard.com

Monday, October 4

DAN RUTHERFORD for Illinois State Treasurer

Image Air Hanger-2929 E. Empire-Bloomington $35/person Airplanes and Pasta! http://danrutherford.org/home/Home.aspx 5:30-7:00 pm Avanti’s Italian Restaurant catering!

Tuesday, October 12

DEBATE-11th Congressional District Debbie Halvorson (D) vs. Adam Kinzinger (R)

6-8:00 p.m. Bone Student Center-Brown Ballroom

Sponsored by ISU Student Governing Association, WJBC and The Pantagraph

Thursday, October 28

State Representative DAN BRADY-VFW Post #454-1006 E. Lincoln-Bloomington $20/person Kids eat Free!

5:30-8:00 pm Music by: The Chestney Family Band